At sunset on this particular Wednesday, the narrow streets around the Erbil citadel, usually crowded with honking cars and hawkers crying their wares, are strangely quiet. The federal government has decreed a three-day holiday, from 19 to 21 November, so people can stay home and wait for the census-takers. Schools and government offices are closed and no inter-city travel is allowed. In certain neighbourhoods, however, the residents gather out of doors, glasses of tea in hand, patiently waiting for the census-takers. Some 130,000 of these have been dispatched throughout the country.
An operation long in the making
This is the first nation-wide census for 37 years. The authorities blame this delay on the decades of instability, the Gulf war from 1991, the US invasion in 2003 and the occupation of part of the territory by the Islamic State Organisation (ISIS) in 2014 –all factors which made it impossible to gather data on account of the general insecurity, the large losses of life and the massive population displacements. The persistent tensions between the central government and the autonomous region of Kurdistan also made it difficult to organise such an undertaking on a national scale and led to a postponement of the census originally planned for 2009.
It was the Planning Minister, in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNPF), who revived this ambitious project. Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al-Soudani announced from Baghdad in a speech carried by the Iraq News Agency (INA) on 19 November 2024, that this initiative was among the government’s top priorities, aimed at the improvement of public services and a more equitable distribution of resources. As Gohdar Mohammad Ali Saeed, in charge of census-taking at the Kurdistan Region Office of Statistics, explained to us :
“With the resumption of reconstruction and the need to plan efficient public policies, it has become imperative to have up-to-date population data.”
The government intends to finalise the gathering of data before the 10 December deadline with a questionnaire consisting of nearly 80 questions addressed to the households concerned. It covers demographic data, level of schooling, level of earnings, housing conditions, access to essential services (running water, electric current, sanitation, trash disposal), deaths in the family over the past 12 months as well as the list of worldly possessions including vehicles, household appliances and electronic equipment.
It has taken several years to organise this census in Iraq, including the development of the necessary tools, an awareness campaign among the people and training the agents in the use of the census-taking technologies. All of which was orchestrated through a coordination between different levels of government. “I cannot claim that 100 % of the population will participate in this census, but we are doing our best to reach everybody”, says Vian Adeb Muhamad Kareem, head of census-taking in Erbil.
Countless efforts have been exerted to map and reach the most remote areas, such as the Southern desert regions, where the nomadic Bedouin tribes live on the banks of the Euphrates river, near Samawah. The situation is similar in the lakeside marshland villages around Chibayish or in the remote hamlets of Kurdistan, whether nestling deep in some valley, perched high on some mountain or lost in the outskirts of some big city. The authorities even considered resorting to unusual means such as military reconnaissance planes to locate populations if the situation demanded.
A persistent climate of distrust
Rawen, a young Iraqi living in the village of Lajan, on the border between two administrative provinces, got in touch with the Statistics Centre after realising that his home had not been visited. His fear of being left out echoed the concerns of many inhabitants of the provinces of Kirkuk, Diyala and Mosul, whose sovereignty and territorial control remain in dispute between Baghdad and Erbil. Tempers are high on both sides over the possible impact of this census in revealing the present composition of the population, especially the ratio of Kurds to Arabs which has certainly changed since the last census was taken. Yet in organising the operation many precautions were taken to avoid this.
For one thing, the questionnaire makes no provision for ethnic or sectarian identification, and there are no questions dealing with these affiliations. For another, Article 140 of the Constitution, meant to settle the issue of disputed territories, guarantees a respect for the historical data of the 1957 census, generally regarded as the last demographically impartial count prior to the Arabisation campaign conducted by the Baath party regime. In fact, during the 1970s and 1980s, the regime moved whole Arab populations into the Kurdish zones and disputed territories in order to modify their demographic composition and strengthen central control. Thus for this census, only people registered before that date (or their descendants) will be taken into account. This measure validates the historical presence of Kurds and leaves aside the populations implanted as a consequence of the repressive political decisions of the past.
In spite of these guarantees, a deep distrust remains as to the use of the demographic data collected, a feeling fuelled by the political leaders. Gondar stresses the fact that “the census mustn’t be politicised or used against the Kurds, Turkmens, Christians and other minorities”. These apprehensions are perfectly justified, so many traces does their land bear of the destruction wreaked upon the Kurds, to which the countless land-mines strewn across the mountain-sides bear silent witness. For the last few weeks the great families in power, especially the dominant parties of the Barzanis (Kurdistan Democratic Party, KDP) and the Talabanis (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, PUK) have launched intensive media campaigns to persuade the Kurds from the disputed areas to go back to their original villages. Dassan, a young Kurd living in the Kasnazan district of Erbil says to me in confidence:
“Have you ever seen Arabs from Baghdad or Basra living in Erbil hurry back home? Only the Kurds are afraid because we don’t trust the Iraqi government. We have always had to know where we are and how much national politics mattered here.”
Given this context, the community wonders how reliable the 2024 census will be and how much respect will it be able to show for the historical data of 1957. The way people are counted could redefine the balance of power in a region already marked historically by ethnic and political tensions.
A demographic battle
The worries are amplified by the complicated situation of the thousands of displaced persons, especially in Sinjar province. These populations, who fled the atrocities perpetrated by ISIS, are scattered about Kurdistan in camps or elsewhere, far from their places of origin. Their demands are simple: they want to be counted in their places of origin, not where they are staying now, for it is on that basis that federal resources will be apportioned to each region. This distinction may seem trivial but is of great importance for the management of the budgets allotted to each province and for the recognition of their rights.
The balance of forces within the Iraqi state, already precarious, may be further jeopardized by the implications of this census. It might bring about a revision of the allocation of seats in parliament, currently calculated at a ratio of one seat per 100,000 inhabitants, based on a population estimated at 40 million, i.e. 329 seats. Demographic changes will probably require legislative adjustments to adapt Parliamentary representation to the present reality of the population, with special implications for the representation of the various regions.
At the same time the census could also affect the allocation of financial resources, especially the federal budget and the oil revenues. According to the 2005 constitution, 17 % of the federal budget goes to Kurdistan. In 2023, for example, Iraq generated approximately $8bn per month in oil revenues, divided among the different provinces. However, the distribution of these funds, which is partly determined by demographic density, could be called into question, leading to discussions entailing a revision of Kurdistan’s share, depending upon the census results. So the current census-taking in Iraq is much more than just a simple administrative operation. “We’ve been deprived of our land, and forced into exile”, Dastan stresses. He adds forcefully : “We refuse to be the victims of demographic manipulations!” Beyond the figures, it is the future of their territory, their economy and their identity which is at stake - a silent menace hanging over Baghdad and Erbil alike.
Translated from French by Noël Burch
